vision | dw2

19 January 2020

The pace of change, 2020 to 2035

Filed under: Abundance, BHAG, RAFT 2035, vision — Tags: NBIC, RAFT 2035, transcendence, vision — David Wood @ 10:05 am

The fifteen years from 2020 to 2035 could be the most turbulent of human history. Revolutions are gathering pace in four overlapping fields of technology: nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech, or NBIC for short. In combination, these NBIC revolutions offer enormous new possibilities.

I wrote these words on the opening page of RAFT 2035, my new book, which was published yesterday and is now available on Amazon sites worldwide (UK, US, DE, FR, ES, IT, NL, JP, BR, CA, MX, AU, IN).

Friends who read drafts of the book ahead of publication asked me:

RAFT envisions a huge amount of change taking place between the present day and 2035. What are the grounds for imagining this kind of change will be possible?

Here’s the answer I included in the final manuscript:

There is nothing inevitable about any of the changes foreseen by RAFT. It is even possible that the pace of change will slow down:

Due to a growing disregard for the principles of science and rationality
Due to society placing its priorities in other areas
Due to insufficient appetite to address hard engineering problems
Due to any of a variety of reversals or collapses in the wellbeing of civilisation.

On the other hand, it’s also possible that the pace of technological change as experienced by global society in the last 15 years – pace that is already breathtaking – could accelerate significantly in the next 15 years:

Due to breakthroughs in some fields (e.g. AI or nanotechnology) leading to knock-on breakthroughs in other fields
Due to a greater number of people around the world dedicating themselves to working on the relevant technologies, products, and services
Due to more people around the world reaching higher levels of education than ever before, being networked together with unprecedented productivity, and therefore being able to build more quickly on each other’s insights and findings
Due to new levels of application of design skills, including redesigning the user interfaces to complex products, and redesigning social systems to enable faster progress with beneficial technologies
Due to a growing public understanding of the potential for enormous benefits to arise from the NBIC technologies, provided resources are applied more wisely
Due to governments deciding to take massive positive action to increase investment in areas that are otherwise experiencing blockages – this action can be considered as akin to a nation moving onto a wartime footing.

Introducing RAFT 2035

Where there is no vision, the people perish.

That insight from the biblical book of Proverbs is as true today as ever.

Without an engaging vision of a better future, we tend to focus on the short-term and on the mundane. Our horizons shrink and our humanity withers.

RAFT 2035 offers an alternative:

Thanks to the thoughtful application of breakthroughs in science and technology, the future can be profoundly better than the present
2035 could see an abundance of all-round human flourishing, with no-one left behind.

The word “abundance” here means that there will be enough for everyone to have an excellent quality of life. No one will lack access to healthcare, accommodation, nourishment, essential material goods, information, education, social engagement, free expression, or artistic endeavour.

RAFT 2035 envisions the possibility, by 2035, of an abundance of human flourishing in each of six sectors of human life:

Individual health and wellbeing
The wellbeing of social relationships
The quality of international relationships
Sustainable relationships with the environment
Humanity’s exploration of the wider cosmos beyond the earth
The health of our political systems.

RAFT offers clear goals for what can be accomplished in each of these six sectors by 2035 – 15 goals in total, for society to keep firmly in mind between now and that date.

The 15 goals each involve taking wise advantage of the remarkable capabilities of 21st century science and technology: robotics, biotech, neurotech, nanotech, greentech, artificial intelligence, collaboration technology, and much more.

The goals also highlight how the development and adoption of science and technology can, and must, be guided by the very best of human thinking and values.

Indeed, at the same time as RAFT 2035 upholds this vision, it is also fully aware of deep problems and challenges in each of the six sectors described.

Progress will depend on a growing number of people in all areas of society:

Recognising the true scale of the opportunity ahead
Setting aside distractions
Building effective coalitions
Taking appropriate positive actions.

These actions make up RAFT 2035. I hope you like it!

The metaphor and the acronym

The cover of RAFT 2035 depicts a raft sitting on top of waves of turbulence.

As I say in RAFT’s opening chapter, the forthcoming floods of technological and social change set in motion by the NBIC revolutions could turn our world upside down, more quickly and more brutally than we expected. When turbulent waters are bearing down fast, having a sturdy raft at hand can be the difference between life and death.

Turbulent times require a space for shelter and reflection, clear navigational vision despite the mists of uncertainty, and a powerful engine for us to pursue our own direction, rather than just being carried along by forces outside our control. In other words, turbulent times require a powerful “raft” – a roadmap to a future in which the extraordinary powers latent in NBIC technologies are used to raise humanity to new levels of flourishing, rather than driving us over some dreadful precipice.

To spell out the “RAFT” acronym, the turbulent times ahead require:

A Roadmap (‘R’) – not just a lofty aspiration, but specific steps and interim targets
towards Abundance (‘A’) for all – beyond a world of scarcity and conflict
enabling Flourishing (‘F’) as never before – with life containing not just possessions, but enriched experiences, creativity, and meaning
via Transcendence (‘T’) – since we won’t be able to make progress by staying as we are.

What’s different about the RAFT vision

Most other political visions assume that only modest changes in the human condition will take place over the next few decades. In contrast, RAFT takes seriously the potential for large changes in the human condition – and sees these changes not only as desirable but essential.

Most other political visions are preoccupied by short term incremental issues. In contrast, RAFT highlights major disruptive opportunities and risks ahead.

Finally, most other political visions seek for society to “go back” to elements of a previous era, which is thought to be simpler, or purer, or in some other way preferable to the apparent messiness of today’s world. In contrast, RAFT offers a bold vision of creating a new, much better society – a society that builds on the existing strengths of human knowledge, skills, and relationships, whilst leaving behind those aspects of the human condition which unnecessarily limit human flourishing.

It’s an ambitious vision. But as I explain in the main chapters of the book, there are many solutions and tools at hand, ready to energise and empower a growing coalition of activists, engineers, social entrepreneurs, researchers, creatives, humanitarians, and more.

These solutions can help us all to transcend our present-day preoccupations, our unnecessary divisions, our individual agendas, and our inherited human limitations.

Going forwards, these solutions mean that, with wise choices, constraints which have long overshadowed human existence can soon be lifted:

Instead of physical decay and growing age-related infirmity, an abundance of health and longevity awaits us.
Instead of collective foolishness and blinkered failures of reasoning, an abundance of intelligence and wisdom is within our reach.
Instead of morbid depression and emotional alienation – instead of envy and egotism – we can achieve an abundance of mental and spiritual wellbeing.
Instead of a society laden with deception, abuses of power, and divisive factionalism, we can embrace an abundance of democracy – a flourishing of transparency, access, mutual support, collective insight, and opportunity for all, with no one left behind.

For more information about the book and its availability, see here. I’ll be interested to hear your feedback!

Comments (1)

9 November 2016

The missing vision

Filed under: politics, vision — Tags: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, politics, post-scarcity, technoprogressive, vision — David Wood @ 10:04 am

The United States of America have voted. In large numbers, electors have selected as their next President someone committed to:

Making it much harder for many types of people to enter the country
Deporting many of the current residents
Ramping up anti-Islam hostility
Denouncing global warming as a hoax
Undoing legislation to protect the environment
Reducing US support for countries facing hostile aggression
Dismantling the US deal with Iran over nuclear technology
Imposing punitive trade tariffs on China, likely triggering a trade war
Packing the Supreme Court with conservative judges who are opposed to choice.

Over the past months, I have tried – and usually failed – to persuade many of my online “friends” of the dangers of voting for Donald Trump. Smart people have, it seems, their own reasons for endorsing and welcoming this forthcoming “shock to the system”. People have been left behind by the pace of change, I’ve been told. Who can blame them for reaching for an outsider politician? Who can blame them for ignoring the objections of elites and “experts”?

Because of the pain and alienation being experienced by many electors, it’s no surprise – the argument runs – that they’re willing to try something different. Electors have proven themselves ready to overlook the evident character flaws, flip-flops, egotism, sexism, and indiscipline of Trump. These flaws seem to pale into insignificance beside the hope that a powerful outsider can deliver a hefty whack on the side of a dysfunctional Washington establishment. Their visceral hatred of present-day politics has led them to suspend critical judgement on the Trump juggernaut. That hatred also led them to lap up, unquestioningly, many of the bogus stories circulating on social media, that levelled all kinds on nonsense accusations on the leadership of the Democratic Party.

(For a thoughtful, heartfelt analysis of why so many people leave behind their critical judgement, see this Facebook essay by Eliezer Yudkowsky.)

There are already lots of arguments about who is to blame for this development – about whose shoulders failed to hold the responsibility to uphold sensible rather than fantasist politics. For example, see this Intelligence Squared debate on the motion “Blame the elites for the Trump phenomenon”.

My own analysis is that what was missing was (and is) a credible, compelling vision for how a better society is going to be built.

Electors were unconvinced by what they heard from Hillary Clinton, and (indeed) from the other non-Trump candidates for nomination. What they heard seemed too much of the same. They imagined that any benefits arising from a Clinton presidency would be experienced by the elites of society, rather than by the common citizen.

What’s needed, therefore, is the elaboration of a roadmap for how all members of society can benefit from the fruits of ongoing and forthcoming technological progress.

I call this vision the “Post-scarcity vision”. Because it involves the fundamental adoption of new technology, for progressive social purposes, it can also be called a “Technoprogressive vision”.

I’ve tried to share my thinking about that vision on numerous occasions over the last 5-10 years. Here are some slides taken from a presentation I gave last month to the IC Beyond (Imperial College Beyond) Society in Central London:

If you want to hear my explanation of these slides in the context of a longer discussion of the impact of automation and technological unemployment on society, here’s a video of the entire meeting (the “vision” slides are in the second half of the presentation):

As this post-scarcity technoprogressive vision evolves and matures, it has the potential to persuade more and more people that it – rather than Trump-style restrictions on movement, choice, and aggregation – represents a better route to a society that it better for everyone.

But beliefs have deep roots, and it’s going to require lots of hard, wise work to undo all kinds of prejudices en route to that better society.

Footnote: I first wrote a formal “Transhumanist Manifesto” in February 2013, here (with, ahem, somewhat flowery language). For other related declarations and manifestos, see this listing on H+Pedia. Out of the growing community of technoprogressives and transhumanists, there’s a lot of potential to turn these visions into practical roadmaps.

Comments (2)

21 May 2015

Anticipating 2040: The triple A, triple h+ vision

Filed under: Anticipating 2040, Events, green, politics, Transpolitica, UKH+, vision — Tags: Abundance, Access, Action, Anticipating 2040, politics, sustainable abundance, Transhumanist Party, vision — David Wood @ 2:14 pm

The following vision arises from discussions with colleagues in the Transhumanist Party.

Abundance

Abundance – sustainable abundance – is just around the corner – provided we humans collectively get our act together.

We have within our grasp a sustainable abundance of renewable energy, material goods, health, longevity, intelligence, creativity, freedom, and positive experience.

This can be attained within one human generation, by wisely accelerating the green technology revolution – including stem cell therapies, 3D printing, prosthetics, robotics, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, synthetic biology, neuro-enhancement, artificial intelligence, and supercomputing.

Access

The rich fruits of technology – abundance – can and should be provided for all, not just for those who manage to rise to the top of the present-day social struggle.

A bold reorganisation of society can and should take place in parallel with the green technology revolution – so that everyone can freely access the education, healthcare, and everything else needed to flourish as a full member of society.

Action

To channel the energies of industry, business, finance, universities, and the media, for a richly positive outcome within the next generation, swift action is needed:

Widespread education on the opportunities – and risks – of new technology
Regulations and checks to counter short-termist action by incumbent vested interests
The celebration and enablement of proactive innovation for the common good
The promotion of scientific, rational, evidence-based methods for taking decisions, rather than ideologies
Transformation of our democracy so that governance benefits from the wisdom of all of society, and serves the genuine needs of everyone, rather than perpetuating the existing establishment.

Transhumanism 2040

Within one generation – 25 years, that is, by 2040 – human society can and should be radically transformed.

This next step of conscious evolution is called transhumanism. Transhumanists see, and welcome, the opportunity to intelligently redesign humanity, drawing wisely on the best resources of existing humanity.

The transhumanist party is the party of abundance, access, and action. It is the party with a programme to transcend (overcome) our ingrained human limitations – limitations of animal biology, primate psychology, antiquated philosophy, and 20th century social structures.

Transhumanism 2020

As education spreads about the potential for a transhumanist future of abundance, access, and action – and as tangible transhumanist projects are seen to be having an increasingly positive political impact – more and more people will start to identify themselves as transhumanists.

This growing movement will have consequences around the world. For example, in the general election in 2020 in the UK, there may well be, in every constituency, either a candidate from the Transhumanist Party, or a candidate from one of the other parties who openly and proudly identifies as a transhumanist.

The political landscape will never be the same again.

Call to action

To offer support to the Transhumanist Party in the UK (regardless of where you are based in the world), you can join the party by clicking the following PayPal button:

Membership costs £25 per annum. Members will be invited to participate in internal party discussions of our roadmap.

For information about the Transhumanist Party in other parts of the world, see http://transhumanistpartyglobal.org/.

For a worldwide transhumanist network without an overt political angle, consider joining Humanity+.

To discuss the politics of the future, without any exclusive link to the Transhumanist Party, consider participating in one of the Transpolitica projects – for example, the project to publish the book “Politics 2.0”.

Anticipating the Transhumanist Party roadmap to 2040

Footnote: Look out for more news of a conference to be held in London during Autumn (*), entitled “Anticipating 2040: The Transhumanist Party roadmap”, featuring speakers, debates, open plenaries, and closed party sessions.

If anyone would like to speak at this event, please get in touch.

(*) Possible date is 3-4 October 2015, though planning is presently at a preliminary stage.

11 March 2015

My vision for Humanity+, 2015-2017

Filed under: Humanity Plus, vision — Tags: Humanity+, transhumanism, vision — David Wood @ 1:40 pm

The most important task for the worldwide Humanity+ organisation, over the next three years, is to dramatically raise the calibre of public discussion about transhumanism and radical futurism.

As an indication of the status quo of the public discussion about transhumanism, type the words “Transhumanists are” into a Google search bar. Google charmingly suggests the following auto-completions:

Transhumanists are stupid
Transhumanists are evil
Transhumanists are crazy.

These sentiments are at stark variance with what I believe to be the case: transhumanists have an insight that deserves much wider support – an insight that, if acted on, will lead to vast improvements in the quality of life of people all over the planet.

That insight – known as the “central meme of transhumanism” – is that we can and should improve the human condition through technology. Rather than continuing to be diminished by limitations inherited from our evolutionary heritage – limitations in our physiology, our psychology, our philosophy, and our social structures – we can and should take conscious control of the next stage of human evolution. We can and should move from a long phase of Darwinian natural selection to a phase of accelerated intelligent design.

Transhumanists boldly assert, in the FAQ maintained on the Humanity+ website, that

Transhumanism is a way of thinking about the future that is based on the premise that the human species in its current form does not represent the end of our development but rather a comparatively early phase.

Transhumanism is the viewpoint that human society should embrace, wisely, thoughtfully, and compassionately, the radical transformational potential of technology. Recent and forthcoming breakthroughs in technology fields such as nanotechnology, synthetic biology, renewable energy, regenerative medicine, brain sciences, big data analytics, robotics, and artificial intelligence can:

Enable humans to transcend (overcome) many of the deeply debilitating, oppressive, and hazardous aspects of our lives
Allow everyone a much wider range of personal autonomy, choice, experience, and fulfilment
Facilitate dramatically improved international relations, social harmony, and a sustainable new cooperation with nature and the environment.

Different opinions

But as I said, most people see things differently. They doubt that technology will change human nature, any time soon. Or, inasmuch as technology might change core aspects of human existence, they fear these changes will be for the worst. Or, if they think technology is likely to improve human experience, they see no need for any “ism” – any philosophy or movement – that promotes such an outcome; instead, they think it will be sufficient to leave technologists and entrepreneurs to get on with the task, unencumbered by philosophical baggage.

I’m very happy to enter discussion on all these points with informed critics of transhumanism – with people who are open to constructive dialogue. That’s a dialogue I wish to promote. That dialogue is, as I see things, a core part of the mission of the Humanity+ organisation.

All too often, however, critics of transhumanism (including the people noticed by Google as thinking that transhumanists are “stupid”, “evil”, and “crazy”) have only a hazy understanding of transhumanism. Worse, all too often the same people have only a hazy idea of the radical transformative potential of accelerating technology. To the extent that these people (who probably form the vast majority of the population) are futurists at all, they are “slow-paced” futurists rather than fast-paced futurists (to use a couple of terms I’ve written about previously). They’re largely oblivious to the far-reaching nature of changes that may take place in the next few decades.

To an extent, we transhumanists and other radical futurists share part of the blame for this situation. In our discussions of the positive transformational potential of technology, we’ve sometimes been collectively guilty of:

Presenting these technological developments as more-or-less inevitable, and as happening according to an inviolable timescale (linked over-closely to Moore’s Law)
Emphasising only the positive implications of these changes, and giving scant attention to potential negative implications
Taking it for granted that these positive benefits will become accessible to everyone, regardless of income, without there being any risk of them primarily benefiting the people who are already powerful and rich.

In other words, our collective advocacy of transhumanism has sometimes suffered from science fiction hype, wishful thinking, and political naivety. The popular negative appraisal of transhumanism stems, in part, from a reaction against these missteps.

A better dialogue

That’s what I believe the Humanity+ organisation can fix. Humanity+ can lead the way in encouraging a wiser, more credible, and more compelling assessment of transhumanism and radical futurism. This will involve multi-dimensional communications – short form and long form, written and video, intellectual and artistic, prose and poetry, serious and humorous, scientific and literary, real-time and recorded, face-to-face and online. As this library of material grows, it will be less and less possible for critics to radically misrepresent the intent and vision of transhumanists. Neutral observers will quickly call them out: you say such-and-such, but the clear evidence is that transhumanists have a much better understanding than that.

As time progresses, more and more people will understand the central messages of transhumanism. They’ll identify with these messages, viewing them as sensible, reasonable, and praiseworthy. And they’ll put more pressure on leaders of all sectors of society to prioritise changes which will accelerate the attainment of the positive evolution of humanity.

Practical steps

The outgoing board of directors of Humanity+ have already sketched a high-level strategic plan which will, in effect, put the organisation in a much better shape to carry out the role I’ve described above. I was part of the team that drew up that plan, and I’m now asking the set of Full Members of the organisation to choose me as one of their preferred candidates for the four elected vacancies on the board.

The strategic plan can be described in terms of five components: stability, speed, scale, vision, and engagement:

Stability: Recent changes in the constitution of Humanity+ have been designed to ensure greater stability in the format and membership of the board of directors. Rather than elections being held on an annual basis, the board now operates with a three-year cycle. For each three-year period, five of the directors are appointed to their roles by the outgoing board, and four more are elected by a vote by all Full Members. This hybrid structure seems to me to provide a strong basis for the other changes which I will describe next
Speed: For the last few years, Humanity+ has shown some aspects of being a bureaucratic organisation, held back from its true potential by a mix of inertia and unclear (diffuse) vision. By adopting modern principles of lean organisations and exponential organisations – learning from principles of successful business startups – the organisation can, and should, move more quickly. I offer my own experience in getting things done quickly – experience which I have honed over 25 years in the mobile computing and smartphone industry
Scale: To have a bigger impact, Humanity+ needs to be able to make better use of its wide network of potential supporters. In part, this involves hiring a Development Director, to improve the financial footing of the organisation. In part, this involves revitalising our structure of chapters, affiliates, and volunteer effort. Finally, this also involves modernising our use of information technology. I expect each of the new board members to play important roles in improving these structures
Vision: Perhaps the single most important energiser of action is to have a clear, inspiring, stretch goal – a so-called “massively transformational purpose”. My own personal vision is “transhumanism for all” – something I have spelt out in more detail in my online declaration of interest in being elected to continue my role on the board. In terms of a vision for Humanity+, I offer “dramatically raise the calibre of public discussion about transhumanism and radical futurism” (though I’m open to re-wording). That is, I offer the vision that I’ve described in the opening part of this article
Engagement: The public discussion about transhumanism has recently been heating up. Transhumanist ideas are appearing more and more often in popular magazines, including Time, Newsweek, and Bloomberg Markets (as I covered in a recent blogpost). Significant credit is due here to the high-energy work of the recently formed Transhumanist Party, led by Zoltan Istvan. The headline in a recent article in The Leftist Review put it as follows: “The age of transhumanist politics has begun”. As that article goes on to say, “transhumanist politics has momentous growth potential but with uncertain outcomes. The coming years will probably see a dialogue between humanism and transhumanism in — and about — most crucial fields of human endeavor, with strong political implications”. Humanity+ cannot stand aside from this engagement. Over the next few years, our engagement needs to continue to expand – not just in the worlds of science and technology, but also in the worlds of art, economics, and (last but not least) politics. One reason I recently founded the Transpolitica think-tank was to accelerate exactly that kind of dialogue. I’ll be delighted to position Humanity+ as being at the heart of that dialogue, rather than standing at the periphery.

A resilient, long-term contributor

I’ve recently passed the landmark of having organised 100 London Futurists events. As I covered in a previous blogpost, that series of meetings has extended for seven years (March 2008 to March 2015). I mention this as an example of the way I am able to work:

Long-term commitment
Regular incremental improvements
Success via building a collaborative team (including volunteers and regular audience members)
Hands-on facilitation and leadership.

That’s the kind of working discipline that I wish to continue to apply on the Humanity+ board.

The endorsements framework on LinkedIn is far from being a watertight reputation management system, but the set of endorsements that my professional colleagues have kindly provided for me surely gives at least some indication of my positive qualities.

For Humanity+ Full Members wishing to check out my personal history and philosophy in more detail, one option is to dip into my book “Smartphones and beyond: lessons from the remarkable rise and fall of Symbian”. Other options are to leaf through the eclectic set of articles on my personal blog (a couple of representative examples are “A muscular new kid on the block” and “Towards inner Humanity+”), and to view the videos on the Delta Wisdom and London Futurists channels on YouTube.

For transhumanists (old and new) who are currently not Full Members of Humanity+, you can find more details here about how to join the organisation. The election runs until midnight PST on 31st March. People who become Full Members up to 24 hours before the end of the election period will be added to the set of electors.

Comments (2)

5 January 2014

Convictions and actions, 2014 and beyond

Filed under: AGI, Anticipating 2025, change, chaos, climate change, futurist, Hangout On Air, leadership, Smartphones and beyond, vision — Tags: AGI, Anticipating 2025, change, chaos, climate change, Duncan Clark, futurism, James Barrat, leadership, London Futurists, Ramez Naam, Smartphones And Beyond, vision — David Wood @ 12:43 pm

In place of new year’s resolutions, I offer five convictions for the future:

First, a conviction of profoundly positive near-term technological possibility. Within a generation – within 20 to 40 years – we could all be living with greatly improved health, intelligence, longevity, vigour, experiences, general well-being, personal autonomy, and social cohesion. The primary driver for this possibility is the acceleration of technological improvement.

In more detail:

Over the next decade – by 2025 – there are strong possibilities for numerous breakthroughs in fields such as 3D printing, wearable computing (e.g. Google Glass), synthetic organs, stem cell therapies, brain scanning, smart drugs that enhance consciousness, quantum computing, solar energy, carbon capture and storage, nanomaterials with super-strength and resilience, artificial meat, improved nutrition, rejuvenation biotech, driverless cars, robot automation, AI and Big Data transforming healthcare, improved collaborative decision-making, improved cryonic suspension of people who are biologically dead, and virtual companions (AIs and robots).
And going beyond that date towards mid-century, I envision seven “super” trends enabled by technology: trends towards super-materials (the fulfilment of the vision of nanotechnology), super-energy (the vision of abundance), super-health and super-longevity (extension of rejuvenation biotech), super-AI, super-consciousness, and super-connectivity.

Second, however, that greatly improved future state of humanity will require the deep application of many other skills, beyond raw technology, in order to bring it into reality. It will require lots of attention to matters of design, psychology, sociology, economics, philosophy, and politics.

Indeed, without profound attention to human and social matters, over the next 10-20 years, there’s a very real possibility that global society may tear itself apart, under mounting pressures. In the process, this fracturing and conflict could, among lots of other tragic consequences, horribly damage the societal engines for technological progress that are needed to take us forward to the positive future described above. It would bring about new dark ages.

Third, society needs a better calibre of thinking about the future.

Influential figures in politics, the media, academia, and religious movements all too often seem to have a very blinkered view about future possibilities. Or they latch on to just one particular imagining of the future, and treat it as inevitable, losing sight of the wider picture of uncertainties and potentialities.

So that humanity can reach its true potential, in the midst of the likely chaos of the next few decades, politicians and other global leaders need to be focusing on the momentous potential forthcoming transformation of the human condition, rather than the parochial, divisive, and near-term issues that seem to occupy most of their thinking at present.

Fourth, there are plenty of grounds for hope for better thinking about the future. In the midst of the global cacophony of mediocrity and distractedness, there are many voices of insight, vision, and determination. Gradually, a serious study of disruptive future scenarios is emerging. We should all do what we can to accelerate this emergence.

In our study of these disruptive future scenarios, we need to collectively accelerate the process of separating out

reality from hype,
science fact from science fiction,
credible scenarios from wishful thinking,
beneficial positive evolution from Hollywood dystopia,
human needs from the needs of businesses, corporations, or governments.

Futurism – the serious analysis of future possibilities – isn’t a fixed field. Just as technology improves by a virtuous cycle of feedback involving many participants, who collectively find out which engineering solutions work best for particular product requirements, futurism can improve by a virtuous cycle of feedback involving many participants – both “amateur” and “professional” futurists.

The ongoing process of technological convergence actually makes predictions harder, rather than easier. Small perturbations in one field can have big consequences in adjacent fields. It’s the butterfly effect. What’s more important than specific, fixed predictions is to highlight scenarios that are plausible, explaining why they are plausible, and then to generate debate on the desirability of these scenarios, and on how to enable and accelerate the desirable outcomes.

To help in this, it’s important to be aware of past and present examples of how technology impacts human experience. We need to be able to appreciate the details, and then to try to step back to understand the underlying principles.

Fifth, this is no mere armchair discussion. It’s not an idle speculation. The stakes are really high – and include whether we and our loved ones can be alive, in a state of great health and vitality, in the middle of this century, or whether we will likely have succumbed to decay, disease, division, destruction – and perhaps death.

We can, and should, all make a difference to this outcome. You can make a difference. I can make a difference.

Actions

In line with the above five convictions, I’m working on three large projects over the next six months:

Ongoing meetings (both “real-world” and “hangouts on air”) of London Futurists
The specific two-day conference Anticipating 2025
Previewing and publication of my forthcoming book Smartphones and beyond.

Let me briefly comment on each of these projects.

Forthcoming London Futurists event: The Burning Question

The first “real-world” London Futurists meetup in 2014, on Saturday 18th January, is an in-depth analysis of what some people have described as the most complex and threatening issue of the next 10-30 years: accelerated global warming.

Personally I believe, in line with the convictions I listed above, that technology can provide the means to dissolve the threats of accelerated global warming. Carbon capture and storage, along with solar energy, could provide the core of the solution. But these solutions will take time, and we need to take some interim action sooner.

As described by the speaker for the event, writer and consulting editor Duncan Clark,

Tackling global warming will mean persuading the world to abandon oil, coal and gas reserves worth many trillions of dollars – at least until we have the means to put carbon back in the ground. The burning question is whether that can be done. What mix of technology, politics, psychology, and economics might be required? Why aren’t clean energy sources slowing the rate of fossil fuel extraction? Are the energy companies massively overvalued, and how will carbon-cuts affect the global economy? Will we wake up to the threat in time? And who can do what to make it all happen?

For more details and to RSVP, click here.

Note that, due to constraints on the speaker’s time, this event is happening on Saturday evening, rather than in the afternoon.

RSVPs so far are on the light side for this event, but now that the year-end break is behind us, I expect them to ramp up – in view of the extreme importance of this debate.

Forthcoming London Futurists Hangout On Air, with Ramez Naam

One week from today, on the evening of Sunday 12th January, we have our “Hangout on Air” online panel discussion, “Ramez Naam discusses Nexus, Crux, and The Infinite Resource”.

For more details, click here.

Here’s an extract of the event description:

Ramez Naam is arguably one of today’s most interesting and important writers on futurist topics, including both non-fiction and fiction.

For example, praise for his Nexus – Mankind gets an upgrade includes:

“A superbly plotted high tension technothriller… full of delicious moral ambiguity… a hell of a read.” – Cory Doctorow, Boing Boing

“A sharp, chilling look at our likely future.” – Charles Stross

“A lightning bolt of a novel. A sense of awe missing from a lot of current fiction.” – Ars Technica.

This London Futurists Hangout on Air will feature a live discussion between Ramez Naam and an international panel of leading futurists: Randal Koene, Michell Zappa, and Giulio Prisco.

The discussion aims to cover:

The science behind the fiction: which elements are strongly grounded in current research, and which elements are more speculative?

The philosophy behind the fiction: how should people be responding to the deeply challenging questions that are raised by new technology?

Finding a clear path through what has been described as “the best of times and the worst of times” – is human innovation sufficient?

What lies next – new books in context.

I’ll add one comment to this description. Over the past week or so, I took the time to listen again to Ramez’s book “Nexus”, and I’m also well through the follow-up, “Crux”. I’m listening to them as audio books, obtained from Audible. Both books are truly engrossing, with a rich array of nuanced characters who undergo several changes in their personal philosophies as events unfold. It also helps that, in each case, the narrators of the audio books are first class.

Another reason I like these books so much is because they’re not afraid to look hard at both good outcomes and bad outcomes of disruptive technological possibility. I unconditionally recommend both books. (With the proviso that they contain some racy, adult material, and therefore may not be suitable for everyone.)

Forthcoming London Futurists Hangout On Air, AI and the end of the human era

I’ll squeeze in mention of one more forthcoming Hangout On Air, happening on Sunday 26th January.

The details are here. An extract follows:

The Hollywood cliché is that artificial intelligence will take over the world. Could this cliché soon become scientific reality, as AI matches then surpasses human intelligence?

Each year AI’s cognitive speed and power doubles; ours does not. Corporations and government agencies are pouring billions into achieving AI’s Holy Grail — human-level intelligence. Scientists argue that AI that advanced will have survival drives much like our own. Can we share the planet with it and survive?

The recently published book Our Final Invention explores how the pursuit of Artificial Intelligence challenges our existence with machines that won’t love us or hate us, but whose indifference could spell our doom. Until now, intelligence has been constrained by the physical limits of its human hosts. What will happen when the brakes come off the most powerful force in the universe?

This London Futurists Hangout on Air will feature a live discussion between the author of Our Final Invention, James Barrat, and an international panel of leading futurists: Jaan Tallinn, William Hertling, Calum Chace, and Peter Rothman.

The main panellist on this occasion, James Barrat, isn’t the only distinguished author on the panel. Calum Chace‘s book “Pandora’s Brain”, which I’ve had the pleasure to read ahead of publication, should go on sale some time later this year. William Hertling is the author of a trilogy of novels

Avogadro Corp: The Singularity Is Closer Than It Appears,
A.I. Apocalypse,
The Last Firewall.

The company Avogadro Corp that features in this trilogy has, let’s say, some features in common with another company named after a large number, i.e. Google. I found all three novels to be easy to read, as well as thought-provoking. Without giving away plot secrets, I can say that the books feature more than one potential route for smarter-than-human general purpose AI to emerge. I recommend them. Start with the first, and see how you get on.

Anticipating 2025

The near future deserves more of our attention.

A good way to find out about the Anticipating 2025 event is to look at the growing set of “Speaker preview” videos that are available at http://anticipating2025.com/previews/.

You’ll notice that at least some of these videos have captions available, to help people to catch everything the speakers say.

These captions have been produced by a combination of AI and human intelligence:

Google provides automatically generated transcripts, from its speech recognition engine, for videos uploaded to YouTube
A team of human volunteers works through these transcripts, cleaning them up, before they are published.

My thanks go to everyone involved so far in filming and transcribing the speakers.

Registration for this conference requires payment at time of registration. There are currently nearly 50 people registered, which is a good start (with more than two months to go) towards filling the venue’s capacity of 220.

Early bird registration, for both days, is pegged at £40. I’ll keep early bird registration open until the first 100 tickets have been sold. Afterwards, the price will increase to £50.

Smartphones and beyond

Here’s a brief introduction to this book:

The smartphone industry has seen both remarkable successes and remarkable failures over the last two decades. Developments have frequently confounded the predictions of apparent expert observers. What does this rich history have to teach analysts, researchers, technology enthusiasts, and activists for other forms of technology adoption and social improvement?

As most regular readers of this blog know, I’ve worked in mobile computing for 25 years. That includes PDAs (personal digital assistants) and smartphones. In these fields, I’ve seen numerous examples of mobile computing becoming more powerful, more useful, and more invisible – becoming a fundamental part of the fabric of society. Smartphone technology which was at one time expected to be used by only a small proportion of the population – the very geeky or the very rich – is now in regular use by over 50% of the population in many countries in the world.

As I saw more and more fields of human interest on the point of being radically transformed by mobile computing and smartphone technology, the question arose in my mind: what’s next? Which other fields of human experience will be transformed by smartphone technology, as it becomes still smaller, more reliable, more affordable, and more powerful? And what about impacts of other kinds of technology?

Taking this one step further: can the processes which have transformed ordinary phones into first smartphones and then superphones be applied, more generally, to transform “ordinary humans” (humans 1.0, if you like), via smart humans or trans humans, into super humans or post humans?

These are the questions which have motivated me to write this book. You can read a longer introduction here.

I’m currently circulating copies of the first twenty chapters for pre-publication review. The chapters available are listed here, with links to the opening paragraphs in each case, and there’s a detailed table of contents here.

As described in the “Downloads” page of the book’s website, please let me know if there are any chapters you’d particularly like to review.

dw2