Pre-publication review: The Singularity Principles

8 June 2022

Pre-publication review: The Singularity Principles

Filed under: books, Singularity, Singularity Principles — Tags: The Singularity Principles — David Wood @ 9:23 am

I’ve recently been concentrating on finalising the content of my forthcoming new book, The Singularity Principles.

The reasons why I see this book as both timely and necessary are explained in the extract, below, taken from the introduction to the book.

This link provides pointers to the full text of every chapter in the book. (Or use the links in the listing below of the extended table of contents.)

Please get in touch with me if you would prefer to read the pre-publication text in PDF format, rather than on the online HTML pages linked above.

At this stage, I will gratefully appreciate any feedback:

Aspects of the book that I should consider changing
Aspects of the book that you particularly like.

Feedback on any parts of the book will be welcome. It’s by no means necessary for you to read the entire text. (However, I hope you will find it sufficiently interesting that you will end up reading more than you originally planned…)

By the way, it’s a relatively short book, compared to some others I’ve written. The wordcount is a bit over 50 thousand words. That works out at around 260 pages of fairly large text on 5″x8″ paper.

I will also appreciate any commendations or endorsements, which I can include with the publicity material for the book, to encourage more people to pay attention to it.

The timescale I have in mind: I will release electronic and physical copies of the book some time early next month (July), followed up soon afterward by an audio version.

Therefore, if you’re thinking of dipping into any chapters to provide feedback and/or endorsements, the sooner the better!

Thanks in anticipation!

Preface

This book is dedicated to what may be the most important concept in human history, namely, the Singularity – what it is, what it is not, the steps by which we may reach it, and, crucially, how to make it more likely that we’ll experience a positive singularity rather than a negative singularity.

For now, here’s a simple definition. The Singularity is the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and the associated transformation of the human condition. Spoiler alert: that transformation will be profound. But if we’re not paying attention, it’s likely to be profoundly bad.

Despite the importance of the concept of the Singularity, the subject receives nothing like the attention it deserves. When it is discussed, it often receives scorn or ridicule. Alas, you’ll hear sniggers and see eyes rolling.

That’s because, as I’ll explain, there’s a kind of shadow around the concept – an unhelpful set of distortions that make it harder for people to fully perceive the real opportunities and the real risks that the Singularity brings.

These distortions grow out of a wider confusion – confusion about the complex interplay of forces that are leading society to the adoption of ever-more powerful technologies, including ever-more powerful AI.

It’s my task in this book to dispel the confusion, to untangle the distortions, to highlight practical steps forward, and to attract much more serious attention to the Singularity. The future of humanity is at stake.

Let’s start with the confusion.

Confusion, turbulence, and peril

The 2020s could be called the Decade of Confusion. Never before has so much information washed over everyone, leaving us, all too often, overwhelmed, intimidated, and distracted. Former certainties have dimmed. Long-established alliances have fragmented. Flurries of excitement have pivoted quickly to chaos and disappointment. These are turbulent times.

However, if we could see through the confusion, distraction, and intimidation, what we should notice is that human flourishing is, potentially, poised to soar to unprecedented levels. Fast-changing technologies are on the point of providing a string of remarkable benefits. We are near the threshold of radical improvements to health, nutrition, security, creativity, collaboration, intelligence, awareness, and enlightenment – with these improvements being available to everyone.

Alas, these same fast-changing technologies also threaten multiple sorts of disaster. These technologies are two-edged swords. Unless we wield them with great skill, they are likely to spin out of control. If we remain overwhelmed, intimidated, and distracted, our prospects are poor. Accordingly, these are perilous times.

These dual future possibilities – technology-enabled sustainable superabundance, versus technology-induced catastrophe – have featured in numerous discussions that I have chaired at London Futurists meetups going all the way back to March 2008.

As these discussions have progressed, year by year, I have gradually formulated and refined what I now call the Singularity Principles. These principles are intended:

To steer humanity’s relationships with fast-changing technologies,
To manage multiple risks of disaster,
To enable the attainment of remarkable benefits,
And, thereby, to help humanity approach a profoundly positive singularity.

In short, the Singularity Principles are intended to counter today’s widespread confusion, distraction, and intimidation, by providing clarity, credible grounds for hope, and an urgent call to action.

This time it’s different

I first introduced the Singularity Principles, under that name and with the same general format, in the final chapter, “Singularity”, of my 2021 book Vital Foresight: The Case for Active Transhumanism. That chapter is the culmination of a 642 page book. The preceding sixteen chapters of that book set out at some length the challenges and opportunities that these principles need to address.

Since the publication of Vital Foresight, it has become evident to me that the Singularity Principles require a short, focused book of their own. That’s what you now hold in your hands.

The Singularity Principles is by no means the only new book on the subject of the management of powerful disruptive technologies. The public, thankfully, are waking up to the need to understand these technologies better, and numerous authors are responding to that need. As one example, the phrase “Artificial Intelligence”, forms part of the title of scores of new books.

I have personally learned many things from some of these recent books. However, to speak frankly, I find myself dissatisfied by the prescriptions these authors have advanced. These authors generally fail to appreciate the full extent of the threats and opportunities ahead. And even if they do see the true scale of these issues, the recommendations these authors propose strike me as being inadequate.

Therefore, I cannot keep silent.

Accordingly, I present in this new book the content of the Singularity Principles, brought up to date in the light of recent debates and new insights. The book also covers:

Why the Singularity Principles are sorely needed
The source and design of these principles
The significance of the term “Singularity”
Why there is so much unhelpful confusion about “the Singularity”
What’s different about the Singularity Principles, compared to recommendations of other analysts
The kinds of outcomes expected if these principles are followed
The kinds of outcomes expected if these principles are not followed
How you – dear reader – can, and should, become involved, finding your place in a growing coalition
How these principles are likely to evolve further
How these principles can be put into practice, all around the world – with the help of people like you.

The scope of the Principles

To start with, the Singularity Principles can and should be applied to the anticipation and management of the NBIC technologies that are at the heart of the current, fourth industrial revolution. NBIC – nanotech, biotech, infotech, and cognotech – is a quartet of four interlinked technological disruptions which are likely to grow significantly stronger as the 2020s unfold. Each of these four technological disruptions has the potential to fundamentally transform large parts of the human experience.

However, the same set of principles can and should also be applied to the anticipation and management of the core technology that will likely give rise to a fifth industrial revolution, namely the technology of AGI (artificial general intelligence), and the rapid additional improvements in artificial superintelligence that will likely follow fast on the footsteps of AGI.

The emergence of AGI is known as the technological singularity – or, more briefly, as the Singularity.

In other words, the Singularity Principles apply both:

To the longer-term lead-up to the Singularity, from today’s fast-improving NBIC technologies,
And to the shorter-term lead-up to the Singularity, as AI gains more general capabilities.

In both cases, anticipation and management of possible outcomes will be of vital importance.

By the way – in case it’s not already clear – please don’t expect a clever novel piece of technology, or some brilliant technical design, to somehow solve, by itself, the challenges posed by NBIC technologies and AGI. These challenges extend far beyond what could be wrestled into submission by some dazzling mathematical wizardry, by the incorporation of an ingenious new piece of silicon at the heart of every computer, or by any other “quick fix”. Indeed, the considerable effort being invested by some organisations in a search for that kind of fix is, arguably, a distraction from a sober assessment of the bigger picture.

Better technology, better product design, better mathematics, and better hardware can all be part of the full solution. But that full solution also needs, critically, to include aspects of organisational design, economic incentives, legal frameworks, and political oversight. That’s the argument I develop in the chapters ahead.